“Those who continue to eat animal foods are holding us back from a livable world” – Gerard Wedderburn-Bisshop.

Dear Climate Healers,

This is an update on “The Truth Behind the Numbers” article. In that article, in the section on “Where the Truth Lies,” we wrote,

“In reality, the estimates for both questions should take into account all 12 emissions components, not just a subset of them.

If we use Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF) as the metric of choice, we can augment the (53%) 66% estimate with a Carbon Opportunity Cost (COC) component to answer Question B.”

Gerard Wedderburn-Bisshop sent an estimate on COC for Question B as follows:
“For total COC since 1750 (Q. B) I use the carbon deficit figures from Erb et al 2018 for grazing lands and cropland deficits are allocated in the same proportion as biomass flows, taken from IPCC AR6 chapter 11, where all grazing land and 66% of crop output are attributed to animal agriculture. This gives a total carbon deficit for animal agriculture of 1610 Gt CO2.”

Amount of CO2 accumulated in the atmosphere between 1750 and 2020: 1028 Gt CO2
Amount of CO2 dissolved in the ocean between 1750 and 2020: 672 Gt CO2
Atmospheric CO2 available for drawdown: 1028 + 672 = 1700 Gt CO2, assuming all ocean dissolved CO2 is outgassed during drawdown.

For CO2 doubling sensitivity of 3ºC (UN IPCC)
ERF of CO2 from 1750 to 2020: 2.06 W/m2
ERF of COC: 2.06 X 1610 / 1700 = 1.95 W/m2 or 75% of 2.604 W/m2 total.
The Question B total including COC would be 53% + 75% = 128% of total ERF

For CO2 doubling sensitivity of 4.5ºC (Hansen et al.)
ERF of CO2 from 1750 to 2020: 2.06X4.5/3 = 3.09 W/m2
ERF of COC: 3.09 X 1610 / 1700 = 2.92 W/m2 or 112% of 2.604 W/m2 total.
The Question B total including COC would be 66% + 112% = 178% of total ERF

Therefore, the Question B total including COC is in the range 128-178% of total ERF for CO2 doubling sensitivity in the range 3ºC – 4.5ºC.

Join us at V-COP23

Please join us in Toronto for the Vegan Convergence Of the Peoples #23 (V-COP23) on Nov 1-2 to help shape and implement our system design plan for Planet B. The theme for V-COP23 is offered by our co-host, Plant Based Treaty: Redirect, Relinquish, Restore::

Redirect our focus from fixing Planet A to building Planet B.
Relinquish the excess resources we have taken from the planet.
Restore the life-support systems of the planet with the relinquished resources.

Please be there and let us make some history.

With much love,